- Inflation sees positive shift, but Fed's work isn't over
- Recession concerns remain, despite optimistic data
- Focus on price series, not wage growth, Goolsbee advises
Some groovy economic news just hit the streets, and it looks like we're on the right track with inflation. But don't get too cozy yet - the Federal Reserve isn't off the hook, according to Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee.
The dude became president earlier this year, stepping in for Charles Evans, and now he's part of the Federal Open Market Committee, the gang that sets the federal funds rate.
Goolsbee was chatting with Steve Liesman on CNBC's "Squawk Box" Friday, feeling optimistic about the latest data. Producer prices and retail sales showed some negative vibes, but Goolsbee thinks it's a step in the right direction.
However, consumer spending took a hit in March, with the bank crisis and recession concerns looming. Retail sales took a bigger dip than expected, and even when you exclude autos, it's still not looking too hot.
Economists were expecting a steady month for the March producer price index, but it took a little tumble instead. The consumer price index dropped too, but it's still the smallest year-over-year increase in almost two years.
Despite these numbers, Goolsbee warns that the U.S. might still face a recession. He also thinks it's high time we stop obsessing over wage growth as an indicator of prices. Instead, we should keep our eyes on the price series, not the wage series.
And just to add a bit more spice, Goolsbee mentioned that the financial stress following Silicon Valley Bank's closure last month could shake things up a bit. Keep an eye out for a potential credit crunch, folks.
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