SUMMARY
- Modelo Especial takes top beer spot, with a growth plan decades in the making.
- Bud Light's decline accelerates Modelo's ascent, with a comeback looking unlikely.
- Constellation's foresight since the '80s pays off, dominating Mexican beer imports in the U.S.
While Modelo Especial's recent crowning as America's top beer might seem like a swift success story, it's been brewing for decades.
Jim Sabia, the bigwig over at Constellation Brands’ beer division, wants to set the record straight. He underlines that their rise wasn’t a mere stroke of luck or due to a competitor's falter; they've been eyeing that top spot for a while. It just so happened that Bud Light's stumble accelerated their plans.
Modelo Especial not only overtook Bud Light’s top position in May but has kept its stronghold ever since. Recent data suggests that by late May, Modelo accounted for a whopping 10.7% of beer sales, nudging out Bud Light which trailed at 9.6%.
Analysts point to a bit of a PR hiccup for Bud Light, related to their association with influencer Dylan Mulvaney. However, Modelo's rise wasn't a fluke. It's been steadily making gains for years, echoing Bart Watson's sentiment, chief economist for the Brewers Association. Watson aptly notes, “Modelo’s been on the ascendancy, while Bud Light...not so much.”
But could Bud Light make a comeback? Gerald Pascarelli of Wedbush Securities isn't optimistic about Bud Light reclaiming its throne. Meanwhile, Constellation saw the potential in Modelo Especial as far back as the 1980s and introduced it to the U.S. in 1982. Greg Gallagher from Constellation Brands chimes in, boasting about Modelo’s impressive growth track record.
The tale of the tape? Mexican beers have been skyrocketing in popularity in the U.S., with Modelo leading the charge. Between 2013 and 2023, the U.S. doubled its beer imports from Mexico. And when it comes to dominance in the Mexican beer market, Constellation stands almost peerless.
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